Speaker: Prof. Álvaro Guinea Julia, Dept. Industrial Org., Comillas Pontifical University ICADE-ICAI, Madrid Abstract: This work introduces a new stochastic volatility model with delay parameters in the volatility process, extending the Barndorff–Nielsen and Shephard model. It establishes an analytical expression for the log price characteristic function, which can be applied to price European options. Empirical […]
Speaker: Dr. Hirbod Assa, Founding team | Quantitative researcher, Edge Technologies; Director and founder, Model Library Ltd. Abstract: In this paper, we utilize data from the IPCC to develop a predictive model for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Our approach involves a two-step modeling process: initially applying a random forest regression, followed by a […]
Speaker: Prof. Riza Demirer, Dept. Economics & Finance, School of Business, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL Abstract: Recent years have seen that institutional investors simultaneously crowd in (buy) the ESG stock market. The aim of this study is to investigate the underlying motivations and their economic consequences. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis […]
Speaker: Prof. Maciej Augustyniak, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Montreal Abstract: Basis risk arises when hedging a financial derivative with an instrument different from its underlying asset. This risk can significantly impair hedging effectiveness and must therefore be properly managed. This article develops a discrete-time hedging framework for European-style derivatives that explicitly accounts […]
Speaker: Prof. Elisa Alos, Dept. of Economics and Business, University of Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona Abstract: We introduce the main tools of Malliavin calculus and show how to use them to study the short-end behavior of skew and curvature of the implied volatility surface. This methodology allows us to obtain general formulas in terms of Malliavin […]
Speaker: Prof. Zhenyu Cui, School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken NJ Abstract: We establish a novel link between nearly unstable cumulative heavy-tailed integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(∞)) processes and the rough Heston model via discrete scaling limits. We prove that a sequence of bivariate cumulative INAR(∞) processes converge in law to the rough Heston model […]
Speaker: Dr. Jean-Phillipe Aguilar, Head of Pricing Models Audit, Societe Generale, Paris La Defense Abstract:Stochastic Volatility Jump Diffusion (SVJ) models combine the advantages of both stochastic volatility and jump models, while addressing some of their well-known limitations; moreover, they often calibrate well in equity and FX markets. In this talk we will focus on a […]
Speakers: Dr. Marco Bianchetti, Head of Market and Counterparty Risk IMA Methodologies, Intesa Sanpaolo, Milan, Italy Dr Fabio Vitale, Senior Researcher, CENTAI Institute, Turin, Italy Abstract: We investigate portfolio optimization in financial markets from a trading and risk management perspective. We term this task Risk-Aware Trading Portfolio Optimization (RATPO), formulate the corresponding optimization problem, and […]
Speaker: Prof. Marta Malecka, Dept. of Statistical Methods, Univ. of Lodz, Lodz, Poland Abstract: The reformed Basel framework has left value at risk (VaR) as a basic tool of validating risk models. Within this framework, VaR independence tests have been regarded as critical to ensuring stability during periods of financial turmoil. However, until now, there […]
Speaker: Prof. Massimo Guidolin, Baffi Carefin Center, Bocconi Univ., Milan Abstract: This paper examines the out-of-sample accuracy of recurrent artificial neural networks (ANNs) compared to traditional econometric models for the prediction of realized volatility. We focus on a horserace between the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, its Markov-switching extension (MS-HAR), multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), and long short-term […]
Speaker: Dr. Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez, Director of Quantitative Analysis and Artificial Intelligence, Miralta Finance Bank, Madrid. Abstract: We introduce a novel framework for portfolio construction, covering both selection and optimization, based entirely on ensemble learning theory. A portfolio is modelled as an ensemble in a multi-hypothesis prediction setting, with each constituent (base learner) focused on […]
Speaker: Prof. Lorenzo Mercuri, Dept of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, Univ. of Milan Abstract: A self-exciting point process with a continuous-time autoregressive moving average intensity process, named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model, has recently been introduced. The model generalizes the Hawkes process by substituting the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck intensity with a CARMA(p,q) model where the associated state process is […]