Inverse Problem for Forecasting Stock Options Prices

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Speaker: Dr. Kirill Golubnichiy, Dept of Math & Statistics, Texas Tech University Abstract: We present a new heuristic mathematical model for accurate forecasting of prices of stock options for 1-2 trading days ahead of the present one. This new technique uses the Black-Scholes equation supplied by new intervals for the underlying stock and new initial […]

Deep learning-based portfolio optimization with transaction costs

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Speaker: Prof. Aihua (Eva) Zhang, College of Science, Math & Tech., Wenzhou-Kean University, Wenzhou China Abstract: In order to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy maximizing the accumulated terminal wealth with transaction costs, in this paper, we propose a new prediction-based portfolio method combining with a long short-term memory (in short, LSTM) network which is an […]

Robust estimation of the range-based GARCH model: Forecasting volatility, value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies

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Speaker: Prof. Piotr Fiszeder, Dept. Econ. & Stat., Nicolaus Copernicus Univ., Torun, Poland Abstract: Traditional volatility models do not work well when volatility changes rapidly and in the presence of outliers. Therefore, two lines of improvements have been developed separately in the existing literature. Range-based models benefit from efficient volatility estimates based on low and […]

Hedonic Models Incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors for Time Series of Average Annual Home Prices

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Speaker: Jason Bailey, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University Abstract:</abstract} Using data from 2000 through 2022, we analyze the predictive capability of the annual numbers of new home constructions and four available environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors on the average annual price of homes sold in eight major U.S. cities. We contrast […]

Do online attention and sentiment affect cryptocurrencies’ correlations?

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Speaker: Prof. Aurelio Bariviera, Dept. of Business, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus, Spain Abstract: This paper adopts a versatile conditional correlation approach to explore daily seasonality in the major cryptocurrencies. Given the lack of clear fundamental value in this market and the active online profile of investors, the study also relates cryptocurrency cross-correlations to online […]

Multi-asset return risk measures

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Speaker:</strong? Dr. Christian Laudagé, Dept. Mathematics, RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau Abstract: We revisit the recently introduced concept of return risk measures (RRMs). We extend it by allowing risk management via multiple so-called eligible assets. The resulting new risk measures are called multi-asset return risk measures (MARRMs). We analyze properties of these risk measures. In particular, we prove […]

Water as a commodity in hydropower generation

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Speaker: Prof. Eduardo Schwartz, Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser Univ. Abstract: The increased impact of extreme weather events and draughts has prompted the rapid growth of the water market. This paper analyzes the optimal operation of a reservoir that generates electricity and manages the water by trading water rights. We extend the framework introduced […]

Dynamic tail risk forecasting: What do realized skewness and kurtosis add?

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Speaker: Prof. Giuseppe Storti, Dept. Econ & Stat., University of Salerno, Fisciano, IT Abstract: This paper compares the accuracy of tail risk forecasts with a focus on including realized skewness and kurtosis in ”additive” and ”multiplicative” models. Utilizing a panel of 960 US stocks, we conduct diagnostic tests, employ scoring functions, and implement rolling window […]

Portfolio optimization in deformed time

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Speaker: Assoc. Prof. Malick Fall, Center for Research in Economics and Management, Univ. of Rennes, Fr. Abstract: The expected return and covariance matrix are commonly calculated on a calendar time scale (e.g. daily or monthly data). In this article, we assess the relevance of calculating them on a new time scale derived from traded volume. […]

Measures of stochastic non-dominance in portfolio optimization

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Speaker: Prof. Miloš Kopa, Dept. Probability & Mathematics, Charles University, Prague Abstract: Stochastic dominance rules are well-characterized and widely used. This work aims to describe and better understand the situations when they do not hold by developing measures of stochastic non-dominance. They quantify the error caused by assuming that one random variable dominates another one […]

Custom ESG Indexing: How Direct ESG Indexing Can Solve Many Responsible Investing Problems

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Speaker: Prof. Dr. Dirk Soehnholz, CEO: Soehnholz ESG GmbH and Soehnholz Asset Management GmbH; Prof. of Asset Management, Leipzig University Abstract: Responsible investments are booming, but criticism has been growing, too. I start by outlining the different dimensions and characteristics of responsible investments. I also describe a free tool to develop bespoke, responsible investment policies […]