Gerardo Chowell
Adaptive Vaccination Strategies to
Mitigate Pandemic Influenza: Mexico as a Case Study
We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an
age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data
from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. In the context of limited vaccine
supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize
youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza,
or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization
and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic.
Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza
vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage
parameters. This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other
countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with
regard to the mitigation of pandemic influenza. Logistical issues associated
with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of
past and future influenza pandemics will be discussed.