The mathematics of the Bio.Diaspora Project
Julien Arino
Abstract:
The potential role of the global air transportation system in the fast and
widespread dissemination of an infectious pathogen was emphasized by the SARS
epidemic of 2003. The Bio.Diaspora Project was initiated in Toronto a few years
later. Our objective is to develop a better understanding of the architecture
and dynamics of the commercial air transportation network and use this knowledge
to assess risk to various health entities in the case of a newly emerging or
reemerging infection. In this project, we make use of several types of
mathematical objects and approaches. Network theory is used to study the
architecture. Metapopulation-type models formulated as continous-time Markov
chains are used to simulate the spread of infection. Tesselations are used to
evaluate population densities. In this talk, I will discuss the global air
transportation network and present some of the tools used in our project.